Northern Europe to return to recession ?
February 6, 2012
Deepsea imports to North Europe have weakened substantially in recent months, a reflection of the on-going financial crisis and uncertainty in Europe, according to to the latest forecast from Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.
“Europe was late coming into the 2007-2009 global recession and slow getting out of it. Now it seems to be striking its own course and creating a new recession which is impacting its trading partners,” said consultancy founder Ben Hackett.
He added: “This return to recession has been self-induced. One cannot blame the banks, the consumer or industry this time around. It is the natural outcome of deliberate changes in the fiscal policies of virtually every EU country, driven by German exhortations.”
The report says North European imports have been on a steady decline since July last year and will continue to do so for the next three months at least. Exports have also declined over the same period with the exception of a single month.
Total Europe 2011 import growth is forecast at 3.9%, with North Europe estimated to have increased 5% and the Mediterranean and Black Sea region 1.8%. For 2012 the projection is for no growth.
The report indicates that although at the six ports of Continental Northern Europe, year-to-date volumes are estimated to be 7.4% higher than in 2010, in the short term, decreases are forecast in half of the next six months.
Hackett said: “Until a month ago we had expected a weak first half for 2012, with a resurgence in the second half resulting in a 2-3% growth in imports for the year. With continuing government policies, we think that even a no-growth scenario might be optimistic.”
He added: “As long as European countries focus on austerity, trade volumes will continue to suffer, as consumer net disposable incomes drop and credit dries up as banks build up reserves required to write off sovereign debts in Greece, Spain and Portugal. We have argued at length that the squeeze is excessive and ill-timed.”
Courtesy of IFW
